An Forecasting Platform Participant Made $436K on Bets Predicting Maduro's Downfall.
A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro just before it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from non-public details of the US operation.
Sudden Shift in Predictions
Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the end of January surged in the period preceding President Donald Trump declared on the weekend that the president had been seized.
One account, which registered on the site recently and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a initial bet of $32.5K.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Probability Spikes Before Announcement
Trading information shows that traders assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event.
However the market's assessment had increased to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the early hours of January 3rd, suggesting a rapid movement in betting activity right before the public announcement was made.
"This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," said a financial reform advocate.
A handful of other individuals also profited large payouts from similar wagers.
Regulatory Scrutiny Grows
Politicians are starting to take note.
Proposed legislation put forward on recently seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet.
Industry Context
Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to predict everything from sports to current affairs.
The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency.
Trading on insider information is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market space.
An official representative for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."
